A letter from Stephen Perry

Dear members

Shanghai TV have made a series of programmes commemorating the 60^th anniversary of the PRC. They decided to include me in the 10 people they filmed. You can see the details below. The distinguished company I keep is a tribute to the 48 Group and its work from 58 years ago. I include in that Joseph Needham, Joan Robinson and Richard Kahn, the distinguished Cambridge professors, who set my father on course.

The opportunity to practice one’s belief is rare. I have been able to practice my belief that trade and investment provide an antidote to war and conflict, and that China’s emergence as a world power is right and inevitable.

I also believe that the global preoccupation with the rise of Asia as a continent acting collegiately, which we forecast over 10 years ago, seems tied to a belief that the world is en route to the rise of a new superpower – China. The preoccupation with G2, G4, G7, G8, G20 is a symptom of these dual anticipated events. But another group – the SCO, BRIC meetings, East Asian summit, ASEAN plus 1/2/3, the Tripartite initiative and the Chiang Mai initiatives – tell a deeper story if they can be really understood. The Chinese contribute to the former group of G’s, but their real belief lies in the latter group.

The real Chinese agenda is to grow strong but independent and not to be a superpower. They philosophically believe in a multi polar world. This is for reasons of principle but also for pragmatic reasons such as, superpowers always fall, superpowers get caught up in projection of values and control over others. Having experienced the core driving forces of China – over population by a factor of 300 percent and 150 years of foreign invasion – they have no wish to lose their way away from concern for their own nation.

Their participation in the global world requires them to participate in its global structures and problems. But they do not want to be involved more than they have to. Their involvement is not tied to a shared value system or to a shared economic system. China’s plans are still not comprehended internationally but Obama might get it better than most, drawing upon his unique upbringing among Western leaders.

The IMF and World Bank reforms seen by many in the West as a testing ground of real politick – that we can adjust to the rising Asia, is not seen that way by China. They will play their part there, but their real interest lies in creating new alternatives in Asia which address Asia’s needs and problems. China is an Asian nation.

I suspected this was the case when I wrote about China’s attitudes, as I perceived them, to the April G20 conference. Now I feel quite sure that China has its own agenda, that it is deeply researched and is long term. China’s accumulation of $3 trillion dollars was not as a result of trade surpluses. It was a target which trade surpluses were to achieve.  Martin Wolf in the FT, Will Hutton, and many others do not comprehend the Chinese thinking. I am not claiming to, but I am claiming that that is a prerequisite to understanding where China is going. The target was a balancing power with the USA. It is about managing the contradiction. Read Mao o Contradiction and it is all there. Most commentators seem to think China’s policies are made like Western ones – as reactions to events. As reactions to election needs. The Chinese one party system allows them to engage in long and short term planning. Their party is well tested at being very realistic about testing and developing policies.

No, I don’t think the Chinese are classical Marxists, but I do think that Marx, and those who followed him, are a significant philosophical guide to China’s path. So without studying what they do study, even though they do down play it, will leave the China forecaster short of the core driving force.

The UK, apart from Standard Chartered and Prudential, is largely poor in Asia. When our students are educated in large numbers in Asia, then we shall begin to see a change in our thinking. We cannot understand China or Asia through poor textbooks and very poor media coverage.

One of the men who will shape the world over the next 50 years is visiting the UK very soon. His name is hardly known and rarely is he quoted. When Hu Jintao left G8 to rush home recently, it was the unknown man who took over the Chinese delegation. Obama realised immediately who he was, but he was one of very few.

Knowing Dai Bingguo is a small measure of the Western lack of understanding of China.

The 48 Group Club will continue to make it voice heard and try to help the West understand China. I have a great committee and a wonderful membership who collectively make us what we are. Maybe others wish to join us and help us understand China. I think China’s leaders understand that our goal is similar to theirs from this process. Through understanding China we can help China fulfil its potential and be a force for peace and prosperity for its people and the world.

Regards

Stephen

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Foreign ‘China visionaries’ speak

SINCE the founding of the People’s Republic of China, many visionary international figures have contributed to China’s success, breaking down barriers and forming genuine friendships with the Chinese people.

“China Visionaries”
Sunday, 8pm, ICS
“My Show”
Sunday, 7pm, Channel Young

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Stephen Perry

Chairman

The 48 Group Club